Nobody likes to bet the Under. There’s a conflicting interest between fan and sports bettor, holding out hope for a low-scoring, uneventful game. However, when that Under play cashes in, most of that conflict is forgotten.
If you’re a fan of low-scoring baseball, then these clubs have already made you a mint in terms of their Under returns for the 2018 MLB season. And if you haven’t been betting these “Under wonders” yet, find out below if our sports betting tips and results will keep coming as we close in on the summer.
Milwaukee Brewers (13-22-1 Over/Under)
The Brew Crew surprisingly have given Milwaukee baseball faithful much to cheer about this season. The Brewers are 21-15 out of the gate and second in the National League Central. Milwaukee’s staff has been superb so far, owning a collective 3.36 ERA. When coupled with a flaying offense, that’s plating only 3.75 runs per game, it’s no wonder Under bettors have boosted their bankroll with the Brewers’ totals.
The bullpen has been the big winner for Milwaukee bettors. While the starters own an ERA just south of 4.00, the relievers have shut down opponents in the later innings, preserving those Under bets for total backers. The Brewers bullpen has a 2.56 ERA – second lowest in the bigs – with 11 saves, and eight blown saves.
The big concern is the amount of work the bullpen is having to take on, totaling 137 1/3 innings already this season. The Brewers have an upcoming 10-game road trip that takes them to Colorado, Arizona, and Minnesota. And while the Rockies and Diamondbacks have leaned toward the Under so far in 2018, they can also hit the cover off the baseball and Milwaukee could give up big scores in those contests.
The bullpen might be about to break for the Brew Crew, putting an end to those Unders. The Over/Under numbers will likely come in too low during this road stint, opening up value on the other side. Watch for sportsbooks to tip their hand, by offsetting the juice on the Over from -110 to -120 or higher.
Houston Astros (14-22-2 Over/Under)
The reigning World Series champs were one of the top Over plays in baseball last year, but haven’t flipped those results due to inflated totals and a select staff posting a MLB-low 2.64 ERA. Houston ranks atop most pitching stats categories, topping the majors in WHIP, strikeouts and quality starts. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Charlie Morton all have ERAs of 2.16 or shorter, and the team continues to set the bar for pitching despite ace Dallas Keuchel getting off to a slow start.
At the plate, the Astros are still among the biggest hitting teams in the American League, posting an average of 4.89 runs per contest while hitting a collective .260 BA – fourth highest in the majors. Oddsmakers are having a hell of a time pegging Houston’s Over/Under number on a nightly basis, with its last 10 games seeing totals of less than nine runs. The Stros went 3-7 Over/Under in those games. The value is going to be there with the Astros totals, and even more so when Keuchel comes around.
Houston has been especially profitable for Under bettors at home, where it’s gone 6-12-1 Over/Under heading into this week. The Astros play eight of their next 11 games inside Minute Maid Park with the three remaining games in L.A. to play the Angels. Houston went 1-2 O/U in an earlier three-game set with the Halos this year. Texas, Cleveland, and San Francisco are the three teams coming to Houston during this stretch. Taking the Rangers out of the equation, bettors could find Under value versus the Indians and Giants with the Astros going 5-13-1 O/U against non-divisional foes in 2018.